When we are going at 4 percent, it's difficult to fall all the way back to contraction. But we could definitely end up having slower growth.
We need every drop of gasoline for the driving season. Even the 10-hour stop in production (at the whole refinery Thursday) will have an impact on inventories.
I think within a couple of weeks, (gas) prices will revert to pre-Katrina levels. But I also believe oil prices will go up again.
They don't want to trigger projects that take even 1 or 2 percent off of demand.
If we look at Hurricane Ivan (which hit the Gulf in 2004), oil prices continued to go up for more than a month. Companies continued to work on their facilities but there were always delays restoring production.
Iran is the only major oil-producing country that still has a budget deficit. History tells us since the Iranian revolution, they always talk about cutting production, but they've never cut it.
There (would) be demonstrations in (Iranian) streets calling for the government to cut off oil exports.
They're saying that right now. The sentiment might change with military action.
OPEC became powerless the moment it sold its last barrel of excess capacity, and that was maybe a year ago.