The growing perception is that Japan is falling back into a dark hole of recession again.
Carl B. Weinberg
These lead to tighter credit conditions and falling stock prices as their collateral assets are liquidated. In this case, two of the failures are insurance companies, whose assets are entirely financial securities.
falling credit insurance
Rising energy prices will further subtract from already-falling real income growth in Japan. In our view, a one or two percentage point subtraction from the growth rate of consumer demand at the margin will prove catastrophic to all hopes of substantial economic expansion.
growth real hopes energy japan expansion rising demand income view
On this assessment, rates ought to stay unchanged for a very long while.
Assuming that most of this windfall for producers will initially be saved, there also is an implicit demand for U.S. Securities.
demand
The catastrophic destruction of wealth than began in January 1990 has left assets? Equities and real estate, mainly? Deflated against a mass of liabilities that are mainly bank loans.
wealth real destruction january left
We call this process the Death Spiral.
death process call
We do not see any fundamentals strong enough to keep it up there --unless there is a lot of intervention with other governments joining in. We expect the move will fail.
strong fail
perception growing dark falling japan recession
With less credit available, less growth is possible. So we are looking at a bad situation here that we fear can only get worse.
growth fear bad situation credit worse
European growth is projected to average less than U.S. Growth for a tenth consecutive year.
growth
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