From the currency perspective, there's definitely been a search for yield. The general weakness in the equity markets hasn't provided any support to regional currencies.
Craig Chan
The focus will be on payrolls, and the market is looking for a significant fall as we are still seeing the effects from Hurricane Katrina. It is worth holding long bond positions.
worth focus fall market bond
If they hold rates steady and don't change the tone of their comments, which are already hawkish, there is scope for a correction in the euro, especially against the yen.
change correction
The story there is more positive, not just from the current-account surplus, but also from the interest-rate side and growth,.. These will help the baht.
growth positive story side
There is some talk in the market that the ECB could move today but we think this is unlikely
today market talk
The Bank Negara meeting today (Jan 20) could be a key event. They may wait to hike rates but core inflation is rising and the market is demanding more monetary tightening.
meeting key today market wait rising inflation
The hurricane impact in the fourth quarter is going to be quite evident and people will look beyond that. Growth is still going to be solid in the first half and the market is slightly under-pricing the risk in Fed tightening.
growth people risk market impact
weakness perspective support search equity currency
Some of the Asian currencies are following the yen. As the yen goes stronger, then there's some trade influences on those economies.
asian trade
There are shifting expectations on whether the Fed will pause or not after its meeting next week. Signals from the Fed that it may pause in June may see a bid for Treasuries.
meeting expectations june
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