It's really unprecedented, so you wonder if it can continue.
David Seiders
The numbers continue to look great. We're riding at an incredibly high level here.
numbers great riding
We see a flattening of housing starts and the beginning of a cooling process.
process beginning
It's when people view these changes as enduring that it really can affect their current spending behavior. I think that is happening probably, and I'm hoping that house price appreciation, the equity accumulation, will help soften the blow in consumer spending.
people appreciation equity price behavior house accumulation view
All the fundamentals remain in place, and the overall housing market continues to exhibit ongoing strength. Favorable mortgage rates, as well as strong household income and job growth, continue to bolster housing demand.
strength growth strong market place job demand income
The housing market is seeking out a peak. While it is still too early to conclude that it has found one, there is growing evidence that the Fed has started to hit its mark and housing will begin losing some of its exuberance in the period ahead.
growing market seeking losing early found begin evidence
There's other housing numbers showing some declines in April as well. My own survey of builders has shown them losing some momentum for the last couple of months, including May. I think there's some evidence accumulating that this supposedly highly interest-sensitive part of the economy is starting to give ground.
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This is obviously exuberant behavior by builders.
behavior
Winter weather really takes the sting out of these declines.
weather winter
Now what happens to the market depends on the interest rate structure. Long rates have been better than expected, but I think we can see them rising, moving into alignment with what's going on with the economy and with short-term rates.
moving market economy interest rising structure
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