We think the Fed will probably move in the summer, in the third quarter.
David Thwaites
My feeling is that the actual numbers will be OK, but that there'll still be a lack of confidence about where we go from here over the next six to 12 months. Generally, we're still likely to continue grinding sideways to lower, although at the moment it's looking like its more lower than sideways.
numbers moment confidence feeling lack
There's relief that there hasn't been any particularly bad news out of the United States, but the focus remains on earnings, both there and in Europe.
focus bad news europe relief
From an operational perspective we need to see signs the company is coping well in this difficult environment, and if that is the case that could set the market up for a good day [on Tuesday]. If not, then the opposite could happen.
environment perspective good day market company coping difficult signs
We've seen a sharp sell-off, bond markets have risen strongly, equity markets have basically collapsed very, very quickly.
equity bond
It's a familiar story. The market is trying to build a floor but the news flow on the corporate side isn't consistently good enough to build a rally.
good story news market flow corporate side
The first quarter should mark the trough in earnings, but judging by the market's negative reaction to recent warnings from the likes of IBM, there's little room for disappointment.
negative judging disappointment warnings reaction
The background news isn't that good with Iraq and corporate news isn't that positive, so it's probably a good reason for people to step back. We've also got technical things going on pushing things all over the place.
people reason positive good iraq news things place corporate
summer
You've basically got steady growth, inflation is not a problem. With the exception of the UK where interest rates are going up, generally you don't have interest rate worries. But I think the markets in Europe, led by Wall Street and the U.S. Bond market had gone too far too fast--a correction was needed.
growth problem worries market correction wall europe interest bond inflation uk
We've still got worries about corporate earnings and I think that's going to be the case for a couple of months yet.
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