We expect the recent jump in retail gasoline prices to push down confidence. Optimistic views around the labor market will likely offset some of the gasoline sticker shock.
Drew Matus
We have had an extraordinary period of job growth the last four months. The bond market is always worried about higher growth, and the equity market is concerned that the Fed might be more likely to overshoot, and take rates too high.
growth market extraordinary equity job bond
Higher oil increasingly will creep into the indicators. Today, it biased the trade gap higher and pushed up import prices and also impeded the consumer sentiment number.
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We expect a balanced speech that reaffirms that a March hike is likely, but that subsequent moves are data-dependent.
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It's the inflation story, it's there and it's got implications going forward.
story forward inflation
This level of inflation, combined with falling unemployment and rising capacity utilization, is a recipe for continued preventative rate hikes.
falling rising inflation unemployment
Modestly weaker-then-expected capital goods orders data suggest a slight shift in growth toward Q4 away from Q1 but the simple fact is that the data clearly suggests that factories are going to be humming throughout Q1.
growth data simple fact
labor confidence optimistic market shock views
Growth was lower than expectations because of inventories -- which will need to be rebuilt -- while moderating employment costs will make it less costly for firms to hire additional workers. The still-strong level of wage and salary should buoy consumption.
growth expectations consumption employment
From his comments, it is clear that the US Fed will keep raising rates, hoping to bring the housing market to a very soft landing.
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People are focusing on the impact of higher energy prices on the consumer instead of focusing on the impact of higher energy prices on inflation.
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