Since the Reserve Bank of Australia raised rates in March, the housing market has just been going sideways. Rates are on hold until the third quarter of this year.
Michael Every
The underlying message from the data is that at the coal face producers are seeing higher costs, but as one moves closer and closer to the consumer these are reduced in both quarter-on-quarter and year-on-year terms.
data face message closer
With the import side holding up more strongly than exports for now, the Reserve Bank is unlikely to respond with lower interest rates in the near term.
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For the Reserve Bank, this is likely to significantly dampen any thoughts of rate increases going forward. With higher oil prices and a weakening housing market, employment growth should be much more moderate ahead.
growth thoughts market forward oil employment
They are concerned about inflation first and foremost but they already know that was going to happen because of petrol.
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The moderation is certainly very slow in arriving, even allowing for the usual lag in data, and these sectors' problems are clearly being mitigated by a pick-up in business investment and commodity exports.
moderation business data problems investment
This kind of figure is bound to generate negative headlines for New Zealand. Higher oil prices also suggest the deficit could widen further.
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That was much worse than expected, and the underlying numbers look weak across the board.
numbers weak worse
This report backs the Reserve Bank remaining on hold ahead. Weakness in retail and transport is being mitigated by a pickup in mining and construction.
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The residential housing market is well off its peak now. The Reserve Bank remains on hold for now with domestic demand moderating.
market demand
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