ECB hawkish-ness will make it harder to keep the dollar where it is.
Steven Englander
The U.S. Recovery story is intact and the real side of the U.S. Economy looks very positive. But you have concerns on the accounting front and they are very hard to quantify.
real positive story hard economy recovery side
It's very unlikely that ECB policy is going to change with any of the likely successors
change
There's a risk you get a terrible number and there's no liquidity in the market
risk market terrible
What's happening with the dollar has little to do with the data. A lot of people were just caught on the wrong side when the euro broke below.2250. That had been the real signal for a lot of people in the market a couple of weeks ago, so now people are just covering their stops
people real data wrong market side
He doesn't say anything very specific about current monetary policy,.. In some ways for FX markets, which have got used to Fed speakers being relatively hawkish, this may be a little disappointing (for the dollar).
speakers
On the plus side, Duisenberg's chosen his own timing,.. The minus is that there's going to be a lot of speculation as to who replaces him.
timing side
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