But I think the underlying trend in terms of consumer spending and overall economic spending is actually up.
Charles Lieberman
I suspect that interest rates must increase considerably more than is currently expected or has been built into forward markets.
forward interest
I think we have a recovery under way,.. At this stage of the recovery, the data are often mixed.
data recovery stage
No doubt housing activity was elevated over the winter because of very, very mild weather. One housing start in Syracuse, N.Y., in December is an awful lot. So we shouldn't be surprised by a big fall-off.
doubt start weather winter big
The fact that claims are low is very comforting.
fact
Unemployment is sufficiently high, and the economy has just come out of a relatively mild recession, so inflation pressures are relatively soft right now. It will take a while of solid growth before we have upward pressure on inflation, so the Fed can be a little relaxed about it.
growth pressure economy recession inflation unemployment
It wouldn't be surprising if there was a little bit of a pullback in consumer spending in the first quarter as well because of the zero-percent financing in the fourth quarter, which makes for a very difficult comparison.
comparison difficult
That's actually good news
good news
Some day I wouldn't be surprised if we go back and take a look at this whole episode and really question whether or not we really had a recession
day question recession
Inflation has been very soft for a number of years, and there's absolutely no reason to believe that's going to change any time in the near future.
change time future reason inflation
You must log in to post a comment.
There are no comments yet.