The negative impact associated with the energy shock will be more evident in the fourth quarter even though it hit in September.
David Greenlaw
I don't think the market is pricing in a big risk of a surprise.
surprise risk market big
What everyone was wondering was where consumers were getting the money to pay for these things, and I do believe we got part of that answer today.
money today wondering things answer part
The producer price numbers on Wednesday and the productivity number on Friday are the most important events we have ahead of the Fed meeting. There's still some uncertainty in the market about what the Fed will do and those numbers will be key to figuring that out.
numbers meeting key uncertainty productivity events market price important
From our standpoint, the change in language represents a small step toward an eventual rate hike.
change language small
negative energy shock impact
The resilience of the consumer really shines through in this data.
data resilience
This is great news on the inflation front. It will be very difficult for the economy to generate any sustained rise in core inflation with unit labor costs showing such a high degree of restraint.
labor news difficult economy great restraint inflation rise
You have a much, much different situation today.
today situation
Overall retail sales growth in December should be robust.
growth sales
While the dissent came as a surprise, we certainly wouldn't read it as evidence of any sort of a significant split on the FOMC.
surprise dissent read evidence
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