I think the key in the market is technology, because what has been giving us this extraordinary earnings growth is spectacular earnings growth from a lot of tech companies. They are telling us the second half is going to be slower. So I think the broader market earnings trend is going to be not sharply down, but trending down.
Douglas Cliggott
What we're seeing in Asia now is that rates of growth are slowing down. It's Latin America where you see growth picking up.
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It's hard to disagree with Greenspan. Our own market view is equities are fairly valued, but they had a tremendous period of catch-up last year and the year before when they were very undervalued We would expect only 7, 8, 9 percent price appreciation next year.
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The jobs report is much like the previous ones this year. There's something in it for everyone.
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Technology is such a huge part of market cap right now; if that part of the market is performing poorly, it's really tough for the other indices to go up.
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The key is if the economic data stays soft, maybe we don't have to worry much about interest rates anymore. Then we need to worry about earnings. What gave us a really strong move in stock prices from late May until about two weeks ago was this heightened optimism that maybe interest rates are at that high. That gave you a relief rally. Now reality is setting in -- if we've seen the worst on interest rates then we've seen the best on earnings.
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The market is adjusting to a trend that the market hasn't lived with in some time. Inflation is going up and interest rate are going up.
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The groups that will do well in this kind of environment are groups that were ignored for some time; food, beverages, household products, necessities.
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The way the economy tends to slow down is in things that either we as individuals or businesses can push off into the future. Auto sales are slowing. That is [due to] individuals this time. We can wait to buy a new car. These announcements from the technology sector appear to imply that a lot of companies are saying we can wait a little while with our business spending.
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Realistically, if it eliminates a degree of risk about the future, that's good news.
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