They may keep a zero interest rate policy for quite a while. They don't seem in a rush to make the first move.
Michael Klawitter
The risk that rates will go beyond 4.50 percent is probably higher than currently priced into the market.
risk market
The U.S. Economy is still doing very well, and numbers out this week should be fairly solid. The dollar is going to be well supported.
numbers economy
The growing tension with Iran is likely to be dollar negative news.
negative growing news iran tension
It's still the aftermath of the jobs data, which came as a bit of a shock. For the dollar, now the focus is on wage inflation and inflation in general.
data jobs focus shock inflation
Clearly you can speculate that 4.75 percent is not the end of Federal Reserve tightening and there is a good argument now that they go to five percent. People don't want to be dollar short at the moment.
people moment good end argument short
In general terms were are still in a.20/1.21 range for euro/dollar.. But the focus is moving away from concerns that the U.S. Economy is slowing.
focus moving economy
On the U.S. Data front we did not get very reassuring numbers. To confirm market expectations in respect of Federal Reserve tightening this year, we need significantly stronger numbers.
numbers data respect market expectations
interest
In the euro zone numbers have been better than expected. In respect to second half of the year the market is too cautious on the ECB and future rate hikes.
numbers future respect market
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