You're not seeing evidence of slowing in the report. That's significant. Status quo in terms of the growth rate won't be good enough to keep the Fed from raising rates beyond neutral.
Michelle Girard
We've got a lot of data to digest between now and [August 21], and the situation could look a little bit different by the time the [Fed] next meets.
time data situation
There wasn't anything that the Fed said or did to imply that the easing cycle was over.
While market participants are focusing on the recession signal associated with an inverted yield curve, consumers are feeling more confident about the economy heading into 2006.
feeling market economy confident recession
Retailers continue to report good sales momentum in the post-holiday period, bolstered by gift card redemptions.
good gift sales
Businesses will be adding workers, so productivity growth will stay modest in 2006. The increase in unit labor costs is something the Federal Reserve is aware of, and it adds to the case they're going to continue raising rates.
growth labor productivity aware
The underlying strength evident in both durable and non-durable goods orders in recent months explains the momentum of the manufacturing sector.
strength
The minutes confirm that the tightening cycle is indeed drawing to a close.
drawing close
While we look for the Fed to pause in June, we expect continued above-trend growth and inflation concerns will lead to further tightening (to 5.5%) in the second half of the year.
growth june inflation
growth good status evidence
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