Even if energy hangs out at these historically high levels, headline inflation should slow down in the coming year.
Steven Wieting
There's a lot of month-to-month volatility in these numbers,.. You had a tremendous amount of widening in February and then a snap back in March.
numbers
The soft patch was highly overrated
patch
We're not at gas prices that pose some kind of a tipping point. There have been botched forecasts of a recession at every 0 move (higher) in crude oil futures.
kind oil recession
There is no change in course, and markets have already priced in more action.
change action
I don't' think we've seen any sign here that there is an urgency to risk damaging the pace of the upturn. Why rush, why panic?
risk panic sign
We already were expecting a 5,000-job decline in manufacturing employment in May.
employment
The Fed has assumed that the weakness in the first quarter was temporary. This confirms that. The reasonable view was you don't have a one-third rise in energy prices without consequences.
weakness energy consequences rise view
September was a month where we thought there was a tremendous amount of weather impact
thought weather impact
energy inflation
It's very unlikely for Fed to worry about month to month data changes, or even two months, as the markets do.
worry data
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