As the market has largely anticipated an end to the current monetary policy soon, buying of the yen will not last.
Yasuhisa Ishida
Foreign players have begun to accumulate short positions on the yen again in the belief that interest rates in Japan will not start rising in the foreseeable future.
belief future start japan interest rising short
The market is largely of the view that the Fed will raise interest rates next month after the statement from the January meeting showing flexibility in raising rates while tracking economic indicators.
meeting market interest january flexibility view
The market has largely factored in another US rate hike this month. The focus is to find out in the accompanying statement whether the Fed will raise interest rates further.
focus market find interest
The dollar's bearish (weaker) trend is expected to continue unless the GDP figures are significantly stronger (than exported) or the market finds strong signals for further rate hikes in the Fed statement.
strong market
There is a strong wait-and-see mode ahead of key economic events in the US, including tomorrow's GDP release and next week's FOMC meeting. This weighed on the euro despite a supportive strong German IFO survey.
meeting key strong events german
As market participants are not ruling out the possibility that the US GDP.. May provide dollar-supportive evidence, they prefer to wait for the outcome.
possibility market wait evidence
I think the market has almost fully priced in now the likelihood of a shift in policy either in March or April and so there is almost no room for the yen to advance any further on this lead.
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As long as concerns over possible interest rate rises are out there, the dollar is likely to be pressured by the unwinding of yen-carry trade positions.
interest trade
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