This is an unusually open race. If Munich splits voters for not being political enough, it's anyone's race.
I'd be surprised if George Clooney didn't get three nominations.
She's going to be the Halle Berry of the season. She's got the charisma, the look. People will be watching what she wears, how she handles the pressure.
Remaking the best picture could be seen as an obvious ploy. Then again, the first movie got so many nominations, the subject matter obviously has something going for it.
It's pretty much locked up for Lee. He's humble, he's well liked, and he's never won. Plus, he's made a very good movie.
The danger of pushing back the Oscars is that the other awards may steal the thunder. The Oscars can almost seem like an afterthought.