We've been saying for some time that if oil hits 0 a barrel, that puts the economy at a tipping point where if there were some other serious problems, we could fall into recession,.. They would leave the economy vulnerable to some other shock that might come along.
Steve Cochrane
This year is really going to be seen as a transition year away from the booming economy to a more moderate pace of growth.
growth economy
time problems fall shock vulnerable leave economy oil recession
The biggest impact clearly is local, not national. If New Orleans suffers a fair amount of damage to hotels and casinos, people may not go there for a while because who wants to go if the place is a mess?
people fair place mess impact damage
It's hard to imagine gas prices at a gallon even a few months ago. We can't rule out a gallon, although a lot depends on the final extent of the damage to the oil infrastructure in Louisiana.
imagine hard rule oil damage
Right now, given the information that we've got, we've lowered our second-half projection [on economic growth] to 4%, essentially shaving off half a point.
information
You do need to earn more in California to achieve the same standard of living than in almost any other state
living achieve california state
That could give the housing market in California another year of life before it slows down.
life market california give
It sounds like it's too soon to write the obituary on the housing market. There's not enough clear evidence.
write market sounds evidence
Huge amounts of grain from the Midwest get shipped out through New Orleans. If grain cannot get out through New Orleans, it could be lost if warehouses are flooded or ports close and barges are stuck in Mississippi. That could have a negative impact on farm income. It would be more costly to truck it to other locations.
negative lost impact close income
The first half of 2005 was a bit slower in terms of retail sales but the pace picked up in the second half.
sales
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