Last time, the market could handle uncertainty as there was a lot of slack but now because prices are so high, the market is not equipped to handle unplanned events.
Tony Nunan
It's no secret that refineries are the problem. There wouldn't be a problem if there was any slack in the system.
system problem secret
Demand is so high and capacity is so low, we can go from comfortable to uncomfortable inventories within a month.
demand comfortable
This market is ready to blow. [Petrol] and geopolitical risks are driving the market and they both do not have easy solutions.
risks solutions market easy ready driving
There is a high probability of further disruptions in Nigeria as we haven't seen the end of the attacks. The big problem is that going into the driving season, Nigerian refined crude is important for the US market, and if there are further disruptions, we are going to get a pop in crude prices.
problem end market pop probability big important driving
uncertainty time events market
It's just profit-taking, the market needed to correct.
market
Iran's nuclear plans will continue to pose a threat. It may shun foreign investment in its oil facilities.
plans oil threat investment
The market is highly sensitized to headlines that could affect supply. Anxiety over supplies and possible disruptions are the key drivers of price now. It's hard to be bearish in a market like this. Levels came off the record high mainly due to profit-taking because prices went up too quickly. But 5-0 seems a very distinct possibility as we approach winter.
key anxiety possibility market winter hard price
The scary thing is that the hurricane season is not over yet.. So I don't see prices coming down.
scary thing
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